Analytics
Yes is at 2.4%, down 48 points from 50% when the market opened on 7 Feb 2026.
The high was 50.5% on 8 Feb 2026 and the low 2.4% on 6 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3%; a month ago, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 6.5% on 20 Feb 2026.
It is one of 11 markets under “Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?”.
$1.48K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.06K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 50 trades, $35.61 bought Yes and $765.36 bought No.
The largest Yes position is acal with 315 shares; the largest No position is SafeVaultBlue with 470. Ten wallets hold 97.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 84 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 8, 5:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 221 points · 7 Feb 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 2.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SafeVaultBlue | No | 470.13 |
| acal | Yes | 315.08 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 180 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-479
| Suirenzirou |
| No |
| 177.43 |
| Dolba | No | 79.14 |
| Lunar Orbit 48EA | Yes | 64.08 |
| Selinaluv | Yes | 50 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 30 |
| Dim-Senior | Yes | 30 |
| AJSV | Yes | 22.95 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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