Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8% on 4 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 60 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 8% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.6 points down, to 1.4% on 5 Jul 2026. $22.75K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 1, 6:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 4 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | 8.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DegenOnChainTest | Yes | 3.5K |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 2.7K |
| Silver Atlas 8539 | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027
| bghf | Yes | 501.09 |
| thissa | Yes | 500 |
| kaixiaoli | Yes | 500 |
| Kenluo | Yes | 500 |
| Letian | Yes | 498.92 |
| pshb5 | Yes | 400 |
| Short-Term-Battery | Yes | 384.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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