Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 32% on 16 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 190 daily closes on record from 16 Aug 2025 to 20 Feb 2026, the highest close was 34.5% on 21 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 14% on 26 Nov 2025. $134.5K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 20, 5:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 190 points, 16 Aug 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | 32.0% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.57K |
| pze123 | Yes | 4.67K |
| Cobalt Harbor 98E6 | Yes | 1.05K |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2025, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2024 to the annual level in 2025. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gdp-growth-in-2025
| Swift Comet D09D | Yes | 1K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 929.19 |
| aureli | Yes | 550 |
| paspor | Yes | 503.01 |
| Radiant-Dahlia | Yes | 500 |
| lauracrypto | Yes | 500 |
| Powerless-Nature | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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