Analytics
Resolved No on 6 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47% on 14 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 6 May 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 25% on 15 Mar 2026. $61.23K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 6:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 6 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | 47.0% |
| 6 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FredericBastiat | Yes | 2.07K |
| qbsk | Yes | 979.89 |
| Loyal-Conspirator | Yes | 517.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, by May 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-may-1
| Yes |
| 398.27 |
| LJ1000LJ | Yes | 294.12 |
| easynow | Yes | 286.3 |
| oak | Yes | 208 |
| testing-the-waters | Yes | 152.65 |
| HugeSilver | Yes | 120.19 |
| ra5tadark | Yes | 120 |
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