Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.5%. Yes opened at 18% on 29 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 12% on 21 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 14% on 20 Oct 2026. $3.38K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 26, 8:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 18.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.24K |
| princrima | Yes | 145.63 |
| nedjeljko | Yes | 108 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory
| parmatrade | Yes | 105.01 |
| Monthly-Understanding | Yes | 68.18 |
| reginaldxd | Yes | 64.48 |
| lava-lava | Yes | 63.53 |
| Dim-Senior | Yes | 51.99 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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