Analytics
Trading ended on 25 Oct 2026 with Yes at 97.8%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.4% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 24.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
Student List 10%+ is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory”, ahead of Student List 2-5% at 1.5%.
$8.98K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Dim-Senior with 695 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 86.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 11:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 8.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.24K |
| fiter | No | 799.69 |
| Dim-Senior | Yes | 694.91 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory
| onforme |
| Yes |
| 582.85 |
| solin1292 | Yes | 444.22 |
| Broken-Umbrella | Yes | 317.03 |
| johnpudricion | Yes | 264.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 212.4 |
| Rr55 | No | 199.98 |
| agid | Yes | 123.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
