Analytics
Yes is at 12.5%, down 7.5 points from 20% when the market opened on 14 Jun 2026.
Across the 131 daily closes on record from 14 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28.5% on 15 Jun 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 20 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 28% on 14 Oct 2026.
$8.78K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.42K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 115 trades, $274.71 bought Yes and $3.91K bought No; the largest was a $1.86K buy of No at 77.7¢.
The largest Yes position is 74-75 with 2K shares; the largest No position is willsom with 2.4K. Ten wallets hold 96.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 131 points, 14 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2026 | 20.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-sign-an-eu-accession-treaty-by-december-31-2027-20260611204943691
| Outsmarter |
| No |
| 838.1 |
| Jesetrading | No | 354.93 |
| Silver Oracle 4FA0 | No | 333.33 |
| 007-Bond | No | 300 |
| stavr | Yes | 285.71 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 220.1 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 198.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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