Analytics
Yes is at 47.5%, up 6 points from 41.5% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 32% on 25 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 32% on 25 Oct 2026.
4-7 is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?”, ahead of 8-11 at 21.5%.
$238.44 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.1K since listing. The order book holds $20.67K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 105 trades, $702.11 bought Yes and $408.92 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Arman2 with 479 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 837. Ten wallets hold 93% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 41.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 837.04 |
| Arman2 | Yes | 478.92 |
| JosephIsGreat | Yes | 349.99 |
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ukmto-notices-october-26-november-1
| pootytherewardfarmer |
| No |
| 110.44 |
| K80PRO | Yes | 80 |
| mehanizator | Yes | 57.88 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 53.39 |
| WarriorH | No | 30.63 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | No | 30.01 |
| SpringlyFawl | Yes | 28.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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