Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 33 points from 33% when the market opened on 23 Jan 2026.
Across the 264 daily closes on record from 23 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 6 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.8%; a month before, 0.3%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 2.2% on 1 Jul 2026.
4-5% ranks sixth of the 7 outcomes in “UK Annual GDP Growth 2026”. 1-2% leads at 88.9%; 0-1% is at 7%.
$10.69K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.8K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 323 trades, $50.63 bought Yes and $3.76K bought No; the largest was a $1.58K buy of No at 76.7¢.
The largest Yes position is planktonXD with 663 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 85.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 12 Feb 2027, 107 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 264 points, 23 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 33.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.22K |
| planktonXD | Yes | 663.14 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 488.94 |
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release. If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 409.05 |
| RewardsMafia | Yes | 333.76 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 215 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 150 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 136.43 |
| hdjdjdjhshh | Yes | 120 |
| ma99 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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