Analytics
Yes is at 64.5%, up 22 points from 43% when the market opened on 22 Aug 2026.
Across the 63 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 40% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 63%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 40.5% on 20 Sep 2026.
Uba Sani is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Kaduna, Nigeria Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Mohammed Ashiru Isa at 22%.
$22.51K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $27.16K, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 247 trades, $4.14K bought Yes and $2.13K bought No; the largest was a $1.9K buy of Yes at 60.5¢.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is RememberAmalek with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 93.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Feb 2027, 102 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 43.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 64.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 2.84K |
| RememberAmalek | No | 2.21K |
| Over10 | Yes | 736.32 |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kaduna-nigeria-governor-election-winner
| Indigo Signal 2966 |
| No |
| 600.71 |
| extractive-manatee | No | 522.41 |
| chocolatepudding | Yes | 337.6 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 298.11 |
| rocky42014 | No | 295.83 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 271.84 |
| Dapsy | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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