Analytics
Yes is at 74.4%, up 24 points from 50% when the market opened on 4 Feb 2026.
Across the 242 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 20.1% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 75.4%; a month before, 20.9%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 55.3% on 20 Oct 2026.
Twice is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?”, ahead of NewJeans at 39.5%.
$16.11K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $29.79, with a 19.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 152 trades, $1.02K bought Yes and $1.82K bought No.
The largest Yes position is KimchiCapital with 631 shares; the largest No position is Hard-Immigration with 757. Ten wallets hold 90.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 242 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 74.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hard-Immigration | No | 757.04 |
| KimchiCapital | Yes | 630.98 |
| Seldon26 | Yes | 301.16 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-kpop-groups-will-release-songs-in-2026
| kknotgambling |
| No |
| 299.11 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 67.34 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 55 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 30 |
| Cooperative-Sunroom | Yes | 25 |
| NFTD | Yes | 22.72 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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