Analytics
Yes is at 45.5%, down 4.5 points from 50% when the market opened on 4 Feb 2026.
The high was 82% on 22 Jul 2026 and the low 20% on 18 Apr 2026. A week ago Yes was at 51.5%; a month ago, 52%. Its largest one-day move was 59 points up, to 82% on 22 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?”.
$6.89 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $514.38 since listing. The order book holds $14.8, with a 83.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $56.31 bought Yes and $116.49 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 5dl with 152 shares; the largest No position is asdasdasdasdasdasdasd with 109. Ten wallets hold 81.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 85 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 3:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 230 points · 4 Feb 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 5dl | Yes | 151.58 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | No | 108.99 |
| Neon Comet 3F19 | No | 67.07 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-kpop-groups-will-release-songs-in-2026
| PoePoe |
| Yes |
| 34.11 |
| winwinwinx100000 | Yes | 24 |
| zhyfacai | No | 21 |
| Aromatic-Carter | No | 17 |
| KKEGOIST | Yes | 16.43 |
| Imperfect-Stacking | No | 14.37 |
| PCMTest | No | 11 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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