Analytics
“Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by September 30?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Oct 2026. $2.12K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 21 daily price points from Sep 11, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 4.5% and 58.5%); 10 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 49 recent public fills from 24 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the White House publicly and officially announces a tariff decrease on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff decrease which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff on Canada with a tariff of a lower rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or higher rate will not qualify. The announced removal of a relevant existing tariff will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump acting in his official capacity, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own. This includes updates or amendments to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, customs rulings, implementation guidance, changes to product coverage or exclusions, and antidumping or countervailing duty determinations. Such agency-level actions do not qualify merely because they implement or exercise authority delegated by Donald Trump or the White House. The relevant tariff change must itself be the subject of a qualifying announcement by Donald Trump or the White House within the market's time frame. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a tariff decrease against Canada. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a relevant tariff decrease. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a change in tariffs, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by Donald Trump or the White House that the United States accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to a tariff decrease qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates a qualifying tariff decrease as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed by Donald Trump or the White House through a qualifying announcement; Statements by persons other than Donald Trump or White House officials authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a policy; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a tariff decrease is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump or the White House.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 21 points · 11 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 49.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 4.8% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 55 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-canada-tariff-decrease-byptptpt
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 40 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.91 |
| 101dogs | Yes | 23.85 |
| Solar Kestrel 08DC | Yes | 20 |
| hp210210 | Yes | 11 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
| pppnn | Yes | 5 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 1.37 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
