Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 38 points from 41% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 37 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.7%; a month before, 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 21% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?”.
$5.38K has traded since listing. The order book holds $1.64K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 76 trades, $121.63 bought Yes and $2.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Numitus1994 with 825 shares; the largest No position is DiaMat with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 93.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 41.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DiaMat | No | 1.2K |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 824.89 |
| Tenebrus7 | No | 425.79 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies. Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order-byptptpt
| Optimus- |
| Yes |
| 392.53 |
| Parz1vaI | No | 250 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 136.61 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 132.75 |
| ronaldburgerking | Yes | 80.65 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 70 |
| dogpsychology | Yes | 63.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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