Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 13 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.9% on 28 Oct 2026. The current quote, 4%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 4.9% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 6.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?”.
$1.13K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $476.41, with a 4.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 40 trades, $36.08 bought Yes and $392.57 bought No.
The largest Yes position is InHellishConditions with 121 shares; the largest No position is DiaMat with 190.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DiaMat | No | 190 |
| timeistmoney | No | 150 |
| InHellishConditions | Yes | 121.46 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies. Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order-byptptpt
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 86.21 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 69.09 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 24.99 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 20 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 15.04 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 5 |
| balthazar | No | 4.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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