Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 31 points from 48% when the market opened on 30 Jun 2026.
Across the 119 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 30 Jun 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 17 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 27.5% on 1 Jul 2026.
$3.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.17K, with a 11.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 34 trades, $59.18 bought Yes and $1.27K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 659 shares; the largest No position is Olcan with 651. Ten wallets hold 95.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 48.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 20.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nadmi | Yes | 658.79 |
| Olcan | No | 651.28 |
| Animated-Zampone | Yes | 362.38 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-december-31-2026-20260628223032088
| Failing-Obsidian |
| No |
| 335.8 |
| ggwellplayista | No | 295 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 260.87 |
| GTOrski1 | No | 190 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 100 |
| bearbees2 | No | 89.36 |
| GodOdin | Yes | 68.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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