Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 7.5%. Yes opened at 58% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 18 Apr 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 58% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 18 Apr 2026. $723.65K traded over the market's life.
179 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 20, 2:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 18 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 58.0% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KARYO | No | 47.24K |
| Indigo Oracle 3F2C | No | 7.17K |
| BarronTrummmp | No | 4.45K |
| JoeBlack01 | No | 3.31K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-broken-by
| troim | No | 2.61K |
| LukeGamma | No | 2K |
| vacherot69 | No | 1.75K |
| sparkdigital | Yes | 1.73K |
| Aggressive-Van | No | 1.33K |
| RememberAmalek | No | 999.99 |
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