Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 16% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 16% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 17 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 3% on 16 Jan 2026. $15.8K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 16.0% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nero. | Yes | 669.1 |
| Velocityyy26 | Yes | 616.23 |
| Valuable-Diving | Yes | 274.67 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Machado hug by January 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Any hug recorded between market creation and that date ET will qualify. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence must be released within the market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-machado-hug-by-friday
| panterooo | Yes | 143.81 |
| braelinmangot | Yes | 130.86 |
| Nostdam | Yes | 104.99 |
| Virtuous-Diction | Yes | 100 |
| Kuzyaaa | Yes | 90.67 |
| conorm | Yes | 80.32 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
