Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.1%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 22 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 22 May 2026 to 17 Jun 2026, the highest close was 99.1% on 17 Jun 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 40.5% on 28 May 2026. $723.26K traded over the market's life.
289 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 18, 12:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 22 May 2026 – 17 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 99.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solid-Airfare | No | 113.86K |
| Rk780 | No | 18.07K |
| Skinny-Class | No | 16.18K |
| BennyHop | No | 10.06K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30
| Miracle007 | No | 9.26K |
| toutiege | No | 8.6K |
| 881112 | No | 5.05K |
| troim | No | 5K |
| silent | No | 4K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 3.6K |
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