Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 15 points from 18% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
The high was 18% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 0.4% on 18 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.3%; a month ago, 0.4%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 8.5% on 5 Sep 2026.
Tim Walker ranks fifth of the 5 outcomes in “Launceston Mayoral Election Winner”. Matthew Garwood leads at 58.5%; Kyle Barrett is at 20.5%.
$824.13 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.98K, with a 3.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 154 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 524.
Trading closes on 28 Oct 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 5:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 18.0% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 523.67 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 154.01 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 72.8 |
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Launceston as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/launceston-mayoral-election-winner-2026
| Haradwaith |
| Yes |
| 71 |
| POB-T | Yes | 60 |
| pppnn | Yes | 40 |
| ramc2005 | Yes | 38.19 |
| AJSV | Yes | 20.45 |
| alphalab1 | Yes | 18.92 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 17 |
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