Analytics
Yes is at 64%, up 44 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 40.5% on 13 Oct 2026.
3 is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?”, ahead of 4+ at 33.5%.
$19.45 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.57K since listing. The order book holds $22.52K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 374 trades, $2.1K bought Yes and $1.87K bought No.
The largest Yes position is spacegliderr with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 79.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 20.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 64.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.09K |
| spacegliderr | Yes | 1.42K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 874.07 |
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-october-2026
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 435.8 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 386.01 |
| Robbb | No | 276.16 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 180 |
| liq2 | Yes | 150 |
| Peter.YF | Yes | 141.45 |
| anoin123 | No | 126.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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