Analytics
Yes is at 21.5%, up 7.5 points from 14% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026, the highest close was 70.5% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 65.5%. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 67% on 15 Oct 2026.
4+ ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?”. 3 leads at 77.5%.
$586.66 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.57K since listing. The order book holds $13.77K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 427 trades, $1.98K bought Yes and $2.72K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Fair-Tan with 824 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2K. Ten wallets hold 83% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.98K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 824.08 |
| kaspersz | No | 813.94 |
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-october-2026
| Robbb |
| Yes |
| 665.91 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 386.01 |
| Peter.YF | No | 369.41 |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 299.94 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 180 |
| AJSV | Yes | 163.04 |
| liq2 | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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