Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 2 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 15 Oct 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 15 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 0.4% on 15 Oct 2026. $11.94K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 639.58 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 386.01 |
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-october-2026
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 170.5 |
| navber | Yes | 54 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| zerone777 | Yes | 50 |
| bechamel | Yes | 46.6 |
| 0x3948jdk97h75g | Yes | 38 |
| Zealous-Haven | Yes | 34.06 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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