Analytics
Yes is at 95%, up 39 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 56.5% on 2 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 90.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 86% on 7 Oct 2026.
0-5 is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?”, ahead of 5-10 at 2.8%.
$10.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $27.66K since listing. The order book holds $12.43K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 316 trades, $12.75K bought Yes and $1.06K bought No; the largest was a $2.52K buy of Yes at 88.4¢.
The largest Yes position is RogerFed with 8.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 86.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 56.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 95.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RogerFed | Yes | 8.75K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.58K |
| groth | No | 2.07K |
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-october
| sqsb |
| No |
| 1.42K |
| rabbit007 | Yes | 1.33K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 1.09K |
| longdated-poli | No | 660 |
| fiter | No | 600 |
| Nadmi | No | 503.24 |
| rocky42005 | No | 358.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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