Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jul 29, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$10.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 29, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 29 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2026 to 28 Jul 2026, the highest close was 95.5% on 28 Jul 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 82.5% on 22 Jul 2026. $10.23K traded over the market's life.

25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 30, 1:39 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 16 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
16 Jul 2026	51.5%
28 Jul 2026	95.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
AMAM13	No	420.51
Royal Horizon 9999	No	338.98
TENETENET	No	100
gavinfunda	No	100

10 of 25 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.