Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

weatherResolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.1K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 27 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 8.2% on 12 Sep 2026. $4.12K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Dr.PNL	Yes	300
GuyFromTinder	Yes	100.49
predictdogepepewif	Yes	100

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".