Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 25.7% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 25.7% on 4 Jan 2026. $8.37M traded over the market's life.
613 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 14.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lanky-Councilor | Yes | 50K |
| anoin123 | Yes | 36.52K |
| AlexKl | Yes | 22.59K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| SatoshiQGalt | Yes | 18.42K |
| DR2708 | Yes | 14.64K |
| Caring-Insight | Yes | 13.35K |
| jaakksa | Yes | 11.5K |
| Erka-RoadTo1M | Yes | 10.57K |
| nutrichicha | Yes | 9.48K |
| bARBara- | Yes | 9.23K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
