Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jul 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$244.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 2, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 2 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 15 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 15 Jun 2026 to 2 Jul 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 26 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 80 points up, to 92.3% on 1 Jul 2026. $244.66K traded over the market's life.

183 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 5:03 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 15 Jun 2026 – 2 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jun 2026	41.5%
2 Jul 2026	99.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
tumoxapro	No	3.81K
MoonLambo1205	No	3.43K
ci4ga	No	3.15K

10 of 183 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access). This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count. Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify. The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.