Analytics
Yes is at 21.7%, up 18 points from 4.2% when the market opened on 13 Jan 2026.
Across the 260 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (32 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.4% on 11 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 12 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17.9%; a month before, 8.8%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 8.1% on 15 Oct 2026.
4.0% ranks second of the 15 outcomes in “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?”. 4.25% leads at 70.7%; ≥ 4.5% is at 2.4%.
$603.29 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.38M since listing. The order book holds $16.98K, with a 7.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.4K bought Yes and $1.52K bought No.
The largest Yes position is ratehikes with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 25.4K. Ten wallets hold 84.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 260 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 4.2% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 21.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 25.45K |
| ratehikes | Yes | 4.77K |
| CDAP1 | Yes | 4.62K |
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| akimbogod |
| Yes |
| 2.97K |
| dgprnta | Yes | 1.36K |
| Deadheadbucky | Yes | 1.06K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 1.02K |
| tradingwhat | Yes | 1K |
| DancewithRisk | Yes | 972.52 |
| Ume-Chang | Yes | 745.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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