Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 5 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 5 Aug 2025 to 20 Aug 2025, the highest close was 42.5% on 5 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 19 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 36.6% on 13 Aug 2025. $39.96K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 4:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 5 Aug 2025 – 20 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | 42.5% |
| 20 Aug 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kickstand7 | Yes | 6.26K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 2.07K |
| Damazo | Yes | 543.5 |
| lissartter | Yes | 461.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Governor Greg Abbott convened a special legislative session on July 21, 2025, limited to 30 calendar days and scheduled to end on August 19, 2025. House Bill 4, introduced during this session, proposes a new congressional district map for Texas’s 38 U.S. House seats. Critics argue the proposal constitutes partisan gerrymandering. This market will resolve to "Yes" if HB 4 passes the Texas House before the special session ends on August 19, 2025, 23:59 ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Regardless of whether this session is extended, this market will resolve based on events occurring on or before August 19. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-texas-house-pass-hb-4-by-august-19
| Newshound | Yes | 250 |
| orchestrator | Yes | 46.82 |
| magomed | Yes | 43.92 |
| Quarrelsome-Diffuse | Yes | 34.16 |
| kashwin | Yes | 29.56 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 12 |
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