Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 6.6 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 2 Sep 2026.
Across the 53 daily closes on record from 2 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.7%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 31.5% on 3 Sep 2026.
Ken Paxton (R) ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner”. James Talarico (D) leads at 95%.
$165.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16K since listing. The order book holds $47.19K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 275 trades, $606.76 bought Yes and $4.53K bought No.
The largest Yes position is denniswin with 3.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 7.8K. Ten wallets hold 88.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 11.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.82K |
| denniswin | Yes | 3.21K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1.03K |
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-tarrant-county-winner
| NagashBeatz |
| Yes |
| 755.59 |
| gmeowcl | Yes | 641.96 |
| Emerald Pioneer B836 | No | 631.06 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 440.23 |
| longdated-poli | Yes | 429.77 |
| algo168 | Yes | 419.96 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 240.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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