Analytics
Yes is at 95.8%, up 44 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.2% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 47.5% on 2 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96.2%; a month before, 94.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 49% on 31 Jan 2026.
Pat Fallon (R) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “TX-04 House Election Winner”, ahead of Jason Pearce (D) at 3.4%.
$35.19K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $52.07K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 132 trades, $19.19K bought Yes and $275.73 bought No; the largest was a $6.23K buy of Yes at 94.5¢.
The largest Yes position is SitsToPee with 438 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 238. Ten wallets hold 91.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 51.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 95.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SitsToPee | Yes | 437.77 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 238 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 216.87 |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-04-house-election-winner
| trerira |
| Yes |
| 200.64 |
| Digital-Boy | No | 186.88 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 130 |
| YouSayUpISayDown | No | 100 |
| GUINESS123 | No | 64 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 50 |
| richyee | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
