Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85.5%. Yes opened at 25% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 6 Oct 2026, the highest close was 40% on 30 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 24% on 31 Aug 2026. $7.37K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 3:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 25.0% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 14.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.13K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 594.1 |
| efflo-polka | Yes | 315 |
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-seats-won-by-plq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election
| Yes |
| 130.41 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 89 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 56.1 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 45.5 |
| tryrktry | Yes | 40 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | Yes | 30 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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