Analytics
Yes is at 2.1%, down 7.9 points from 10% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%.
Decrease ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?”. No Change leads at 94.5%; Increase is at 0.6%.
$140 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.75K since listing. The order book holds $1.56K, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 145 trades, $215.69 bought Yes and $1.64K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Breakable-Bottomline with 834 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 92.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 5:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.6K |
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 833.99 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 360 |
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-december-31
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 160.91 |
| AJSV | Yes | 156.38 |
| Dapsy | No | 150 |
| cigarettes | No | 84 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 60 |
| napamen | Yes | 50 |
| lissartter | Yes | 44.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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