Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, up 2.5 points from 24% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 33% on 4 Oct 2026.
4.1% ranks second of the 9 outcomes in “October Unemployment Rate”. 4.2% leads at 43.5%; 4.3% is at 23%.
$387.85 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.94K since listing. The order book holds $2.44K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 207 trades, $1.52K bought Yes and $1.86K bought No.
The largest Yes position is podairpod with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 90.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 6 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| podairpod | Yes | 1.8K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.55K |
| 17735977 | Yes | 1.5K |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/october-unemployment-rate-2026
| perfectnostalgia |
| Yes |
| 507.4 |
| Antony82 | No | 501.77 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 494.3 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 427 |
| grinder1011 | No | 396.17 |
| marksman | No | 384.81 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 297.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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