Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 16, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$19.8K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 16, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 63%. Yes opened at 15% on 19 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 16 Dec 2025, the highest close was 42.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 7.5% on 20 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 19.5% on 21 Nov 2025. $19.81K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 17, 4:30 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 16 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Nov 2025	15.0%
16 Dec 2025	37.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	6.18K
DanGabriel	Yes	999.99
NorthPolar	Yes	41.67
itsjustcheddar	Yes	40

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for November 2025. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The next data release is scheduled for December 5, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for November is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.