Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?Yes | buy | 5.13 | $0.390 | $2 | Feb 13, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 7.14 |
| $0.280 |
| $2 |
| Feb 13, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in January?Yes | sell | 37.03 | $0.007 | $0.26 | Feb 13, 2026 |
 Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.030 | $1 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes | buy | 11.9 | $0.420 | $5 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Yes | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 666.66 | $0.001 | $0.67 | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.400 | $5 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?Yes | buy | 18.64 | $0.215 | $4 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference?Yes | sell | 3.77 | $0.003 | $0.01 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 15.15 | $0.066 | $1 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 90.91 | $0.011 | $1 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Yes | buy | 10.71 | $0.280 | $3 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?Yes | buy | 21.73 | $0.138 | $3 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference?Yes | buy | 3.77 | $0.530 | $2 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.210 | $3 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 666.67 | $0.003 | $2 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?Yes | buy | 18.98 | $0.105 | $2 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 19.23 | $0.610 | $11.73 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in January?Yes | buy | 37.04 | $0.027 | $1 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.090 | $2 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?Yes | buy | 34.33 | $0.058 | $2 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 19.23 | $0.260 | $5 | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.250 | $5 | Dec 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | sell | 21.18 | $0.046 | $0.97 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | sell | 15.83 | $0.006 | $0.09 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 31.25 | $0.032 | $1 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?Yes | buy | 33.67 | $0.030 | $1 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?Yes | buy | 12.2 | $0.410 | $5 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes | sell | 7.84 | $0.360 | $2.82 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.400 | $2 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?No | buy | 22.73 | $0.044 | $1 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?Yes | buy | 37.5 | $0.400 | $15 | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes | sell | 16.94 | $0.003 | $0.05 | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes | sell | 10.47 | $0.015 | $0.16 | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes | sell | 8.1 | $0.280 | $2.27 | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 37.03 | $0.690 | $25.55 | Nov 23, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?No | sell | 16.12 | $0.680 | $10.96 | Nov 23, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?Yes | buy | 7.85 | $0.382 | $3 | Nov 22, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 16.13 | $0.310 | $5 | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 37.04 | $0.270 | $10 | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Yes | buy | 18.18 | $0.110 | $2 | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes | buy | 16.95 | $0.059 | $1 | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes | buy | 8.11 | $0.370 | $3 | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes | buy | 10.47 | $0.191 | $2 | Nov 20, 2025 |
 Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?Yes | sell | 14.28 | $0.033 | $0.47 | Nov 20, 2025 |
 Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.040 | $0.8 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | buy | 19.61 | $0.051 | $1 | Sep 12, 2025 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?Yes | buy | 6.45 | $0.310 | $2 | Sep 12, 2025 |