Analytics
Yes is at 28%, down 15 points from 43% when the market opened on 15 Sep 2026.
Across the 42 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 28% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 40.5%; a month before, 32.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 40.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Next UK by-election called by…?”.
$5.58 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $470.57 since listing. The order book holds $20.67K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 160 shares; the largest No position is ShewasonlyonTRT with 100.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 15 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | 43.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 28.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 159.91 |
| ShewasonlyonTRT | No | 100 |
| anthonytru | No | 70 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-uk-by-election-called-by-20260914
| Antony82 |
| Yes |
| 50 |
| jessicacropley2000 | No | 49.84 |
| siwel | Yes | 48.08 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 38.57 |
| erFiodena | No | 36.36 |
| Haradwaith | No | 30.1 |
| theta-thunberg | No | 23.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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