Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 9.7 points from 12% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.2% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 10.8% on 6 Oct 2026.
October 26 ranks fifth of the 7 outcomes in “Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?”. No release by October 31 leads at 92.5%; October 29 is at 3.6%.
$28.97 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.24K since listing. The order book holds $3.42K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 56 trades, $5.34 bought Yes and $745.85 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 225 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 519. Ten wallets hold 90.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 26 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 8:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 26 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 12.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 519.02 |
| KimchiCapital | No | 260.21 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 224.75 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-model-1pt4-released-onptptpt-20260922133617102
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 158.33 |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. | Yes | 150 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 43 |
| navber | Yes | 40 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 39.21 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 25.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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