Analytics
Yes is at 0.5%, down 13 points from 13% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.1%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 4.5% on 26 Sep 2026.
October 23 ranks fourth of the 11 outcomes in “Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?”. No release by October 31 leads at 96.7%; October 27 is at 1.1%.
$1.09K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.69K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 30 trades, $3.2 bought Yes and $764.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 818 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.3K.
Trading closes on 23 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 5:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 13.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.34K |
| balthazar | Yes | 817.9 |
| gambler925 | No | 174.11 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260922131618444
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 117.34 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 100 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 99 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 59.87 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 58.1 |
| 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yes | 50 |
| ViscaElBarca | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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