Will the Labour Party candidate win 40-45% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$7.4K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 47%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 15 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2026 to 9 Oct 2026, the highest close was 53% on 9 Oct 2026 and the lowest 17% on 19 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 53% on 9 Oct 2026. $7.42K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 12:33 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 15 Sep 2026 – 9 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.81K
Mirror.	Yes	849.48
AMAM13	Yes	78.06

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).