Analytics
Yes is at 24.5%, up 6 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
The high was 29% on 17 Oct 2026 and the low 9.5% on 1 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 23% on 12 Oct 2026.
It is one of 19 markets under “Which Senate races will be within 1%?”.
$161.53 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.16K since listing. The order book holds $422.02, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $121.79 bought Yes and $657.84 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 317 shares; the largest No position is macrosteaks with 209. Ten wallets hold 92.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 17 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 10:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 18.5% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 316.5 |
| macrosteaks | No | 209 |
| Bold Raven C7B5 | No | 160 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-1
7 more markets, none above 6.0%.
| cosmicsteaks |
| No |
| 156 |
| johnnath1222 | Yes | 99.09 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 41 |
| PCMTest | No | 40 |
| frontiertrade | Yes | 30 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 21 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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