Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 10 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 22 Aug 2026.
Across the 63 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 8% on 30 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20%; a month before, 16%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 15% on 16 Sep 2026.
It is one of 19 markets under “Which Senate races will be within 1%?”.
$1.29K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.36K, with a 23.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $73.95 bought Yes and $497.49 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 280 shares; the largest No position is macrosteaks with 209.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 12 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 10:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 26.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 280.15 |
| macrosteaks | No | 209 |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 63 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-1
7 more markets, none above 6.5%.
| cosmicsteaks |
| No |
| 59 |
| ImNotBetting | Yes | 41.67 |
| privaterico2026 | Yes | 14.29 |
| emv000 | No | 12 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 11.97 |
| Haradwaith | No | 8.1 |
| UpTheStairs | Yes | 3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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