Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.4K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.2%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 4 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 20.5% on 4 Jul 2025 and the lowest 1.5% on 5 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 1.5% on 5 Jul 2025. $5.38K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 4:50 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Jul 2025	20.5%
1 Aug 2025	10.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.49K
pmkt1939	Yes	1.93K
hrant111	Yes	42
IdiotDoomSpiral	Yes	30

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2025. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The next data release is scheduled for August 1, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.