Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.3%. Yes opened at 45% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 82 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 14 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.3% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 45% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 71% on 25 Jul 2026. $51.37K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 15, 8:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 14 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 45.0% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 96.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SteviaDaddy | No | 707.3 |
| TRADER420 | No | 704 |
| frozenriver | No | 302.23 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723190836285
| Scaly-Arena | No | 200 |
| acc32 | No | 125.64 |
| tiongbu | No | 52 |
| tanirus | No | 47.62 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 41.75 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| PPMT | No | 29.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
