Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 33% on 18 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 18 Jun 2026 to 10 Sep 2026, the highest close was 33% on 18 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 13% on 20 Jun 2026. $15.93K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 18 Jun 2026 – 10 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | 33.0% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 66.44K |
| Pleasant-Lender-Mess | Yes | 666.67 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 385 |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097
| 2kparabellum |
| Yes |
| 100 |
| Crimson Kestrel EEA2 | Yes | 90 |
| Rapid Maven E07A | Yes | 25 |
| Cobalt Pioneer 172A | Yes | 7.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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