Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 19 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 81 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2025 to 18 Mar 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 19 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 3% on 20 Dec 2025.
76 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 20, 3:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 19 Dec 2025 – 18 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2025 | 11.5% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 98.78K |
| Impure-Contour | Yes | 7.54K |
| Quiet Ledger 9F98 | Yes | 5K |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20256, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-march-2026
| Yes |
| 4.36K |
| zelimiuw | Yes | 2.5K |
| ACara | Yes | 2.04K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| Mr.GoodCat | Yes | 1.98K |
| shuishen00 | Yes | 1.48K |
| anujsharma | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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