Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 17, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$839.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 17, 2025 UTC

Topic roomECB interest rates

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 1.7% on 8 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 8 Mar 2025 to 17 Apr 2025, the highest close was 2.7% on 8 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 29 Mar 2025. $839.22K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 18, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 8 Mar 2025 – 17 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Mar 2025	1.7%
17 Apr 2025	0.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	48.9K
heuer	Yes	26K
cryptophiliac	Yes	10K
crazychickenz	Yes	5K

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for April 16-17, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by July 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.