Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 47% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 84 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 23 Jul 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 5 May 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 21 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 53.5% on 5 May 2026. $138.81K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 24, 12:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 1 May 2026 – 23 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 47.0% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 52.79K |
| sam52727482916 | Yes | 23.84K |
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 9.92K |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-july-2026
| Yes |
| 9.07K |
| exothetajunkie | Yes | 4.56K |
| Sparkling-Clause | Yes | 4.38K |
| TrickTripBedroom | Yes | 2.61K |
| Limited-Ring | Yes | 2.51K |
| Nifty-Legal | Yes | 2.04K |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 920.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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