Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 38 points from 38% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
The high was 38% on 25 Jul 2026 and the low 0.1% on 11 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 0.1%; a month ago, 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 6.5% on 26 Jul 2026.
25 bps decrease ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “ECB Interest Rates: October 2026”. No change leads at 91.5%; 25 bps increase is at 6.5%.
$172 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $24.62K since listing. The order book holds $29.95K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 301 trades, $27.32 bought Yes and $10K bought No.
The largest Yes position is donthackme with 11.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 84.5K. Ten wallets hold 84% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Oct 2026, 21 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 7:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 76 points · 25 Jul 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 38.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 84.52K |
| donthackme | Yes | 11.73K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 10.53K |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778
| e46m3 |
| Yes |
| 8.75K |
| balthazar | Yes | 8.22K |
| jozeslemsek | Yes | 5.12K |
| Classic-Loggia | Yes | 4.52K |
| qwen4.1.fund | Yes | 3.29K |
| 123987456 | Yes | 2.88K |
| Hourglass | Yes | 2.49K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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